I’m not a currency-guessing kind of guy (I did one formal forecast and was right, so I retired undefeated), and I don’t have an opinion on the broad USD. But the CAD/USD story to me is that a trade war whacks the Canadian economy harder, hence CAD is less attractive.
Although CAD/MXN are not very deep, they presumably have a decent weighting in a trade-weighted USD. If people are thinking of “trade weighted USD” when they write about “USD”, the commentary may make more sense.
Maybe respond to the argument that Krugman makes here? https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/12/27/tariffs-and-the-trade-balance-wonkish/
I’m not a currency-guessing kind of guy (I did one formal forecast and was right, so I retired undefeated), and I don’t have an opinion on the broad USD. But the CAD/USD story to me is that a trade war whacks the Canadian economy harder, hence CAD is less attractive.
fair point yeah. This is more about USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF e.g.
Although CAD/MXN are not very deep, they presumably have a decent weighting in a trade-weighted USD. If people are thinking of “trade weighted USD” when they write about “USD”, the commentary may make more sense.